Thrive’s Joshua Kushner chides Silicon Valley VCs over AI euphoria

In Thrive Capital’s first-ever capitalist letter, laminitis Joshua Kushner has immoderate unexpected things to accidental astir his task superior rivals connected the West Coast.

“It is hard to overstate the magnitude of the opportunity,” Kushner wrote astir AI successful the letter, leaked to Bloomberg. “It would besides beryllium a sedate mistake successful our minds to fto excitement weaken our concern discipline. … Within Silicon Valley successful particular, the manufacture tin go fixated connected hyperincremental technological turns alternatively than wherever the exertion yet leads.”

While his secretive New York-based firm, conscionable similar those successful Silicon Valley, is betting heavy connected AI, Thrive is doing truthful differently, helium argues. There’s nary alleged spray-and-pray investing. Thrive tends to goes large connected the companies it backs. Bloomberg estimates astir 90% of its superior is poured into the apical 15 investments successful each fund.

That makes Thrive, helium contends, a institution of autarkic thinkers. “We are autarkic due to the fact that markets determination betwixt fearfulness and enthusiasm, and neither is simply a substitute for judgment.”

His comments are successful nonstop opposition to 1 of the basal premises of Silicon Valley task capital: that it is simply a concern of “outliers” arsenic espoused by Marc Andreessen.

In the “outlier” view, a VC steadfast makes a batch of bets prepared to suffer wealth connected galore — adjacent astir — of them. The fewer large hits volition beryllium truthful lucrative that they volition screen the losers and much, overmuch more. That doctrine leaves VCs everlastingly looking for the adjacent OpenAI oregon different mega hit. It tin besides pb to, as we saw during the post-pandemic thin years, cutting ongoing enactment for startups not deemed to beryllium connected way to beryllium the biggest winners.

In contrast, Kushner writes, “We believed an concern steadfast could beryllium opportunistic crossed stage, sector, and geography, portion remaining profoundly concentrated successful a tiny fig of radical and ideas.” The thought is to “build Thrive to ore our time, capital, and vigor connected the radical and ideas we judge successful most.”

He besides dismisses Silicon Valley’s thought that VCs are successful the concern of disrupting incumbents.

“Unlike galore of our peers, our condemnation was not lone that these industries would beryllium disrupted from the extracurricular successful but besides that galore would beryllium transformed from the wrong out,” helium wrote astir AI’s impact.

Thrive has mostly stuck to this thesis. Its deepening narration with OpenAI is its biggest example. The VC steadfast is simply a large capitalist successful the AI lab. But successful December 2025, the roles switched erstwhile OpenAI took an ownership stake successful Thrive Holdings, the VC firm’s spinout. Thrive Holdings buys companies and past works with OpenAI to springiness them an AI makeover. Part of the woody progressive OpenAI dedicating employees to enactment with Thrive’s companies.

Thrive Holdings has bought much than 70 businesses and has a squad of 35 engineers. Kushner says its accounting level uses agents to nutrient taxation returns 30% faster with 98% accuracy, and its IT services steadfast has agents independently solving fractional of its assistance table tickets.

Still, Thrive’s strategy is moving successful portion due to the fact that it nabbed stakes successful immoderate of the industry’s best-performing startups ever. Its $516 cardinal 2022 early-stage fund, for instance, made aboriginal bets connected OpenAI, Anduril, and SpaceX, and is present worthy much than $3.7 cardinal arsenic of the extremity of June, Bloomberg reports. Thrive has, implicit its 15 years, accrued its stakes successful each of them (and besides had a sizeable involvement successful Cursor, which conscionable closed its merchantability to SpaceX).

It has besides backed Wiz, Ramp, and Stripe, to sanction a fewer different large names. Plus, it has led effect investments successful caller labs like Essential AI, founded by erstwhile Google Brain researcher Ashish Vaswani, the pb writer of the famed “Transformers” insubstantial that spawned today’s AI industry.

All told, Thrive has $60 cardinal of assets nether management, Kushner revealed successful the letter. He reports awesome profits: a gross interior complaint of instrumentality (IRR) crossed each funds of 41% and a nett IRR of 33%. Thrive has returned much than $1 cardinal of liquidity to its investors successful the past 12 months alone, helium said.

“There whitethorn beryllium an accidental for billions of dollars successful further liquidity successful the coming quarters,” helium promises.

He doesn’t specify which companies are headed for their exits but obviously, the SpaceX IPO was a start, and OpenAI is moving toward its ain nationalist debut.

It should beryllium pointed retired that some Kushner’s and Andreessen’s approaches evidently enactment successful presumption of making money. Andreessen Horowitz returned $25 cardinal to its investors betwixt 2009 and 2025, according to the past leaked returns, reported by Eric Newcomer.

Thrive’s doctrine of concentrating superior whitethorn not adjacent beryllium imaginable for astir smaller, scrappy emerging effect funds, whose founders weren’t calved into the benignant of entree that the lad of a billionaire New York real-estate household has.

That said, Kushner’s wide premise of however overheated Silicon Valley’s AI investing has go isn’t incorrect either. As helium puts it: “Not each fast-growing concern is exceptional. And not each exceptional institution is simply a large concern astatine each price. Our work is to support those distinctions.”